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The largest uncertainty in future sea-level rise is loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Ice shelves, freely floating platforms of ice that fringe the ice sheets, play a crucial role in restraining discharge of grounded ice into the ocean through buttressing. However, since the 1990s, several ice shelves have thinned, retreated, and collapsed. If this pattern continues, it could expose thick cliffs that become structurally unstable and collapse in a process called marine ice cliff instability (MICI). However, the feedbacks between calving, retreat, and other forcings are not well understood. Here we review observed modes of calving from ice shelves and marine-terminating glaciers, and their relation to environmental forces. We show that the primary driver of calving is long-term internal glaciological stress, but as ice shelves thin they may become more vulnerable to environmental forcing. This vulnerability—and the potential for MICI—comes from a combination of the distribution of preexisting flaws within the ice and regions where the stress is large enough to initiate fracture. Although significant progress has been made modeling these processes, theories must now be tested against a wide range of environmental and glaciological conditions in both modern and paleo conditions. ▪ Ice shelves, floating platforms of ice fed by ice sheets, shed mass in a near-instantaneous fashion through iceberg calving. ▪ Most ice shelves exhibit a stable cycle of calving front advance and retreat that is insensitive to small changes in environmental conditions. ▪ Some ice shelves have retreated or collapsed completely, and in the future this could expose thick cliffs that could become structurally unstable called ice cliff instability. ▪ The potential for ice shelf and ice cliff instability is controlled by the presence and evolution of flaws or fractures within the ice. 

Rifts are full-thickness fractures that propagate laterally across an ice shelf. They cause ice-shelf weakening and calving of tabular icebergs, and control the initial size of calved icebergs. Here, we present a joint inverse and forward computational modeling framework to capture rifting by combining the vertically integrated momentum balance and anisotropic continuum damage mechanics formulations. We incorporate rift–flank boundary processes to investigate how the rift path is influenced by the pressure on rift–flank walls from seawater, contact between flanks, and ice mélange that may also transmit stress between flanks. To illustrate the viability of the framework, we simulate the final 2 years of rift propagation associated with the calving of tabular iceberg A68 in 2017. We find that the rift path can change with varying ice mélange conditions and the extent of contact between rift flanks. Combinations of parameters associated with slower rift widening rates yield simulated rift paths that best match observations. Our modeling framework lays the foundation for robust simulation of rifting and tabular calving processes, which can enable future studies on ice-sheet–climate interactions, and the effects of ice-shelf buttressing on land ice flow. 

The phase field method is becoming the de facto choice for the numerical analysis of complex problems that involve multiple initiating, propagating, interacting, branching and merging fractures. However, within the context of finite element modelling, the method requires a fine mesh in regions where fractures will propagate, in order to capture sharp variations in the phase field representing the fractured/damaged regions. This means that the method can become computationally expensive when the fracture propagation paths are not known a priori. This paper presents a 2D hp-adaptive discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for phase field fracture that includes a posteriori error estimators for both the elasticity and phase field equations, which drive mesh adaptivity for static and propagating fractures. This combination means that it is possible to be reliably and efficiently solve phase field fracture problems with arbitrary initial meshes, irrespective of the initial geometry or loading conditions. This ability is demonstrated on several example problems, which are solved using a light-BFGS (Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno) quasi-Newton algorithm. The examples highlight the importance of driving mesh adaptivity using both the elasticity and phase field errors for physically meaningful, yet computationally tractable, results. They also reveal the importance of including p-refinement, which is typically not included in existing phase field literature. The above features provide a powerful and general tool for modelling fracture propagation with controlled errors and degree-of-freedom optimised meshes. 

We present a finite-element-based cohesive zone model for simulating the nonlinear fracture process driving the propagation of water-filled surface crevasses in floating ice tongues. The fracture process is captured using an interface element whose constitutive behavior is described by a bilinear cohesive law, and the bulk rheology of ice is described by a nonlinear elasto-viscoplastic model. The additional loading due to meltwater pressure within the crevasse is incorporated by combining the ideas of poromechanics and damage mechanics.We performed several numerical studies to explore the parametric sensitivity of surface crevasse depth to ice rheology, cohesive strength, density, and temperature for different levels of meltwater depth.We find that viscous (creep) strain accumulation promotes crevasse propagation and that surface crevasses propagate deeper in ice shelves/tongues if we consider depth-varying ice density and temperature profiles. Therefore, ice flow models must account for depth-varying density and temperature-dependent viscosity to appropriately describe calving outcomes. 

Abstract Hydrofracturing can enhance the depth to which crevasses propagate and, in some cases, allow full depth crevasse penetration and iceberg detachment. However, many existing crevasse models either do not fully account for the stress field driving the hydrofracture process and/or treat glacier ice as elastic, neglecting the non-linear viscous rheology. Here, we present a non-local continuum poro-damage mechanics (CPDM) model for hydrofracturing and implement it within a full Stokes finite element formulation. We use the CPDM model to simulate the propagation of water-filled crevasses in idealized grounded glaciers, and compare crevasse depths predicted by this model with those from linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) and zero stress models. We find that the CPDM model is in good agreement with the LEFM model for isolated crevasses and with the zero stress model for closely-spaced crevasses, until the glacier approaches buoyancy. When the glacier approaches buoyancy, we find that the CPDM model does not allow the propagation of water-filled crevasses due to the much smaller size of the tensile stress region concentrated near the crevasse tip. Our study suggests that the combination of non-linear viscous and damage processes in ice near the tip of a water-filled crevasse can alter calving outcomes.